The Role of Artificial Intelligence in Russian Foreign Policy will grow stronger – the West must be prepared

As the attrition of Russian military power in Ukraine continues, economic and technological sanctions against Russia deepen, and the Kremlin’s classical diplomatic tools are curtailed to a certain extent, it may turn to other, unconventional instruments to achieve its great power ambitions. Artificial intelligence could play a major role in this effort.

The increasingly limited tools of Russian foreign policy

Since the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, but especially since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022, the instruments of the Russian foreign policy have been limited in many areas. It is far from being completely isolated, not even in the field of Russian-Western relations, and Russia’s credibility, especially in the respect of bilateral agreements, has been greatly reduced. Not only has it become discredited by attacking Ukraine, having previously committed itself in five international documents to respect the sovereignty of Ukraine’s territory, but despite its strategic partnership with Iran, Moscow has not helped Tehran in its war with Israel. Similarly, it seems to be not so much a constructive, but rather a destructive player in international organizations.

In terms of soft power, humanitarian, educational and cultural fields, Russia is obviously less and less able to present itself as a credible champion of human rights and respect for other cultures. However, in many African, Asian and South American countries, it still has a kind of influence, and is able to present an alternative, anti-Western image in a limited way.

Russia is waging a war in Ukraine on a massive scale the world hasn’t seen since the Second World War. Replacement of the more than 10,000 military assets already lost, and hundreds of thousands casualties of manpower, will take a decade or more. And lastly, regarding the Russian economy’s shrinking potentials, they are less and less able to act as a bully in Europe: gas and oil trade has either ceased or is below previous levels, and direct financial support is at best limited to small radical groups.

However, there are areas such as intelligence, sabotage and disinformation campaigns where the Russian activity has increased and their skills have even improved recently. Obviously, if it has certain foreign policy ambitions, the latter will appear to be the most useful of its existing capabilities. But are there such ambitions?

If we take a brief look at the statements of key Russian officials, or the Russian foreign policy doctrine from 2023, we can see how the country perceives itself. Moscow sees itself as a major global player, and the sense of global mission is becoming more and more apparent. The Kremlin is by no means planning to adopt a less assertive foreign policy. In fact, however ironic it may sound, it sees itself as a guarantor of global peace and stability, so we should not expect a reduction in the activity of Russian foreign policy in the long term. Even if it does not seem easy to imagine at present, Russia openly admits that it wants to increase its influence in its region, in Europe, and even globally. One of the central elements of its foreign policy is anti-Western sentiment, meaning that it views the US, the EU, NATO, and their member states as rivals. However, it can only rely on a limited set of tools to assert its interests against them. Logically, the tools most likely to be used to reduce asymmetry with Western adversaries will therefore be those listed above: sabotage, intelligence and, in particular, the use of artificial intelligence.

AI in Russian foreign policy

Russian political and military leadership sees AI as an indispensable tool for the country’s national security and aims to integrate it into its diplomacy, military, cyber and information warfare. A good example of this centrality to foreign policy is the statement by Russian President Vladimir Putin himself that the global role of AI also contributes to fulfilling geopolitical goals.

There are at least four levels of application of AI in foreign policy. The first is its application in military terms, the operation and even development of which we are seeing every day in the war against Ukraine. To highlight just the most important ones: in addition to the mass use of drones, the constant development of guidance systems and air defense systems. Let there be no doubt, these are skills that Russia can easily share with its main allies such as Iran, China and North Korea.

The second is cyber operations, which involves the use of artificial intelligence for intelligence gathering and the mass collection of sensitive data. And even the launch of large-scale, automated attacks against the facilities of the rival country’s crucial infrastructure.

Another spectacular development has been the information warfare that Moscow has been actively using for almost a decade, especially since the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014. This tactic is not new, it is almost a century old, but it has mastered the modern tool of AI. Automated production and distribution of fake news, the use of legions of bots, and the manipulation of public opinion are already well known to international audiences. However, the evolution of deepfake video is also providing the Kremlin with unprecedented tools. Russian capabilities already exist to flood the web with masses of manipulated fake news, to influence the ordinary audience, to convince them of Russian interests, or at least to confuse them in the mediascape. Even if a video turns out to have been created by generative artificial intelligence, by the time it is proven to be authentic, the damage is already done. Imagine what would happen if a near-perfect AI video  of a leader of a world power openly calling for nuclear war. Even if it could be disproved almost immediately, the damage would already be done and who knows what unforeseen consequences could be triggered.

This is particularly evident in the media environment around the war against Ukraine, but disinformation campaigns driven by Russian AI are also intensifying in the run-up to elections in some Western countries. It is important to underline that Russia is not able to create new fault lines in the societies of some countries, but it is very successful in mapping and deepening existing divisions. As with a successful online advertising campaign, the Kremlin is able to deliver its own narrative and disinformation to social groups with very different views, for example simultaneously supporting extremist forces at both ends of the political spectrum in a campaign. The end result is that social consensus and the ability to engage in dialogue are even more at risk than before.

Finally, as part of digital diplomacy, it can integrate all these and complement the classic diplomatic arsenal. Russian diplomacy is traditionally powerful, with centuries of professionalism and experience, and can therefore greatly reduce asymmetries in other areas, especially in combination with AI.

What can the West do?

It is very important to begin with that Russia has been under sanctions in many high-tech areas since 2014-15, so its capacity to develop in many technologies is already limited. This does not mean that there is no progress, but that it is slow compared to other, more advanced countries. The impact of the sanctions is mitigated by the fact that Russia also has close ties with countries with advanced AI technologies, such as China. To curb Russia’s malign AI capabilities, it is essential to maintain punitive technological measures.

On the other hand, major social media sites are increasingly focusing on detecting and filtering out automated pseudo-profiles. True, these are not necessarily successful. Indeed, there are initiatives to restrict the operation of sites that publish artificially generated fake news, for example. In this way, the Russians are cunningly forcing Western countries to deny their own most important values: restrictions on the media and freedom of expression. A milder step would be for the advertisements on  fake news sites to be restricted by the advertisers themselves, in order to reduce the  revenue of the disinformation spreaders. What would be the PR implications if a Western global company were to regularly place ads on the most sophisticated Russian disinformation sites?

It is also essential that Western countries surpass Russia in the field of artificial intelligence, and share capabilities for better defense, just as Moscow does with its partners. An excellent example is the early warning system established within NATO to help detect and develop early counter-responses to Russian disinformation campaigns. Similar cooperation already exists in the EU and among the G7 countries. Of course, similar steps will only be effective if they are prepared at the level of individual countries, in their own legislation and institutions, to better defend themselves.

Finally, as Russian AI is often aimed at the individual, it is essential to train people from school age on how to recognize and filter out fake news. It is true that the effects of this will only bear fruit after a generation has grown up, but in the long term it may provide the most resilience against the use of unethical AI.

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